Listen to the optimists, and the AI-driven economic boom is at the doorstep. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects AI will add 1.5% to GDP and productivity over the next decade. Goldman Sachs says it could add up to three percentage points to productivity every year. By the mid-2030s, AI might increase work output by 20%, according to Vanguard.
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The latest foreboding is from Citrini Research, a little-known US firm that provides insights on “transformative ‘megatrends’”. Its post on Substack, which it called a “scenario, not a prediction”, rattled investors by portraying a near future in which autonomous AI systems – or agents – upend the entire US economy, from jobs to markets and mortgages.